After multiple high-profile injuries caused by atmospheric turbulence, you might be wondering whether airplane rides are getting rougher. Unfortunately, the answer is yes, at least for clear-air (i.e., non-storm-related) turbulence in the North Atlantic region. It seems that climate change, as predicted, is increasing the bumpiness of our atmosphere. There are a couple of mechanisms at play here.
The first is that warming temperatures fuel thunderstorms. When ground-level temperatures and water temperatures are warmer, that provides more warm, moist air rising up and feeding atmospheric convection. Especially in the summertime, that translates into stronger, more frequent thunderstorms; even with flights avoiding the storms themselves, there’s greater turbulence surrounding them.
The second mechanism relates to wind, specifically in the mid-latitudes. In general, a temperature difference between two regions causes stronger winds. (Think about the windy conditions that accompany an incoming cold front.) At the mid-latitudes, the difference between cold polar regions and warmer equatorial ones creates a strong wind, known as the jet stream. Now, as temperature gradients increase at cruising altitudes, the jet stream gets stronger, which means bigger changes in wind speed with altitude. And its those wind speed differences at different heights that drive turbulence.
So, yes, we’re likely to see more turbulent flights now and in the future. But, fortunately, there’s a simple way to avoid injuries from that bumpiness: buckle up! If you keep your seat belt fastened while you’re seated, you can avoid getting tossed around by unexpected G-forces. (Image credit: G. Ruballo; see also Gizmodo)