People have long hoped to reliably predict volcanic eruptions. An automated system at Piton de la Fournaise in France has been doing so since 2014 with an impressive 92% accuracy. The tool, called Jerk, makes its predictions based on real-time measurements of subtle ground movements associated with magma fracturing rock on its way to the surface. Its predictions have ranged from minutes to hours before the start of an eruption.
So far, the team has only tested the system at one volcano, but they are working to install a second version at Mount Etna, where they’ll see whether other volcanoes produce a similar signal ahead of eruption. If so, Jerk could provide valuable warnings in populated areas and give geologists an automated alternative for monitoring remote volcanoes.
To learn more, check out the team’s open access paper and this interview with the team leaders over at Gizmodo. (Image credit: F. Beauducel; research credit: F. Beauducel et al.; via Gizmodo)
Leave a Reply